Dow Jones Shanghai Index broke support at 440. Expect more government efforts, near the close, to shore up support. As futile as attempting to hold back the tide. Target for the breakout is 330*.
* Target calculation: 440 – ( 550 – 440 ) = 330
Tag Archives: Dow Jones Shanghai Index
ASX selling pressure
The ASX 200 is falling sharply despite strong performance in China. Breach of the rising trendline (around 5400) would indicate a correction to test the primary trendline around 5000. The support level is indistinct because of frequent back-filling and could establish anywhere between 5300 and 5450. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero after a bearish divergence warns of strong selling pressure. Respect of support at the secondary trendline is therefore unlikely.
* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5450 ) = 5850
The ASX 200 VIX is rising, but low levels remain typical of a bull market.
Dow Jones Shanghai Index continues to make strong gains since commencing a primary up-trend, but expect further resistance between 310 and 315, at the 2013 high.
S&P 500 recovers but Europe remains weak
- Europe continues to test support.
- S&P 500 recovers.
- VIX continues to indicate a bull market.
- China bullish.
- ASX 200 recovers.
Dow Jones Europe Index continues to test its primary trendline and support at 315/325. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support at 315 would confirm.
The S&P 500 recovered above 1950, suggesting another test of resistance at 2000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above its July high would suggest that buyers have taken control. Reversal below 1900 is unlikely, but would warn that the primary trend is slowing.
* Target calculation: 1500 + ( 1500 – 750 ) = 2250
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains low, suggesting a bull market.
Dow Jones Shanghai Index is testing resistance at 295. Breakout would confirm a primary up-trend. Respect of resistance, however, would indicate further consolidation.
ASX 200 recovery above 5550 also suggests another advance. Respect of zero by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 5450 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800
S&P 500 recovers but Europe remains weak
- Europe continues to test support.
- S&P 500 recovers.
- VIX continues to indicate a bull market.
- China bullish.
- ASX 200 recovers.
Dow Jones Europe Index continues to test its primary trendline and support at 315/325. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support at 315 would confirm.
The S&P 500 recovered above 1950, suggesting another test of resistance at 2000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above its July high would suggest that buyers have taken control. Reversal below 1900 is unlikely, but would warn that the primary trend is slowing.
* Target calculation: 1500 + ( 1500 – 750 ) = 2250
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains low, suggesting a bull market.
Dow Jones Shanghai Index is testing resistance at 295. Breakout would confirm a primary up-trend. Respect of resistance, however, would indicate further consolidation.
ASX 200 recovery above 5550 also suggests another advance. Respect of zero by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 5450 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800
Shanghai rally
Dow Jones Shanghai Index rallied Monday, headed for another test of resistance at 270/272. Momentum is rising, but only recovery above 282/284 (with TMO above zero) would signal a trend change. Further consolidation is more likely, ranging between 258 and 284. Downward breakout, unlikely at present, would warn of a decline to 240*.
* Target calculation: 260 – ( 280 – 260 ) = 240
Shanghai near double bottom
Dow Jones Shanghai index continues its strong performance. Breakout above 285 would complete a double bottom reversal, signaling a primary up-trend. Respect of resistance is more likely, but would still be bullish if followed by narrow consolidation.
Shanghai breakout
Dow Jones Shanghai index also exerts a positive influence, with a strong breakout above medium-term resistance at 271. Resistance at 284 is some way off, but would complete a double bottom reversal.
ASX signals correction despite Shanghai rally
Dow Jones Shanghai Index penetrated its (secondary) descending trendline today, suggesting an up-swing to test resistance between 298 and 304 at the upper trend channel. Reversal below 282 and the lower trend channel is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 248.
The ASX 200, however, broke its rising trendline and short-term support at 5200, warning of a correction to primary support at 4650. Breach of medium-term support at 5000 would further strengthen the signal.
China: Controlled descent
China’s Shanghai Composite Index monthly chart displays controlled descent rather than free-fall, declining in layers of roughly 200 points since early 2010. After breaking support at 2000, expect a decline to 1800*. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero reflects the primary down-trend. Recovery above 2000 is most unlikely but would suggest a bear trap.
* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2200 – 2000 ) = 1800
The Shenzhen Composite Index offers a target of 600* after breaking support at 800 on the monthly chart. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure.
* Target calculation: 800 – ( 1000 – 800 ) = 600
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index respected resistance at 22000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 21000 would indicate a test of the rising trendline at 20000. Recovery above 22000 is unlikely at present but would signal an advance to 24000*
* Target calculation: 22 + ( 22 – 20 ) = 24
China: Shanghai breaks support
China’s Shanghai Composite Index followed the DJ Shanghai Index, breaking primary support at 2000 to warn of a down-swing to 1850*. Completion of another 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak, this time deep below zero, would indicate a strong primary down-trend. Recovery above 2000 is unlikely but would suggest a bear trap.
* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850
Dow Jones Shanghai Index earlier broke support at 250, signaling a primary decline. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure.
* Target calculation: 250 – ( 270 – 250 ) = 230
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is far stronger, testing resistance at 22000. But a sharp fall on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Breakout above 22000 would signal an advance to 24000* but reversal below 21000 is as likely and would indicate a test of the rising trendline at 20000.
* Target calculation: 22 + ( 22 – 20 ) = 24
Asia: India & China weaken
India’s Sensex broke support at 18500, warning of another correction. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate long-term buying pressure; so the correction is likely to be mild. Respect of 18000 would suggest a strong primary up-trend, with an initial target of 20000*.
* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20
Singapore’s Straits Times Index broke support at 3000, warning of a correction. Expect support at the lower trend channel. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero would reflect a ranging market.
* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300
China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing primary support at 2000. Breakout would offer a target of 1850*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Recovery above 2150 is unlikely but would complete a double bottom reversal.
* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850
The Hang Seng Index is undergoing a correction. Breach of 21000 would indicate a test of 20000 and the rising trendline. Falling 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure but the long-term picture remains bullish with, most likely, another trough above zero. Breakout above 22000 is unlikely at present but would signal an advance to 24000*.
* Target calculation: 22 + ( 22 – 20 ) = 24
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rallied to test resistance at 9200/9300. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 9300 would test 10200. Respect of resistance is unlikely but would suggest another test of primary support at 8200.
* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200
South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index found support at 1860; recovery above 1900 would suggest another test of 2000. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate long-term buying pressure. Recovery above 2000 would signal another primary advance.
Asia: India strong, China & Japan weaken
India’s Sensex continues to hold above 18500, suggesting a healthy up-trend. Rising troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Breakout above 19000 would signal an advance to 21000*.
* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0
Singapore’s Straits Times Index continues to test support at 3000. Breach of 2950 would test the lower trend channel, while breakout above 3100 would indicate an advance to 3300*. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero would reflect a ranging market.
* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300
Japan’s Nikkei 225 is headed for another test of medium-term support at 8450 after latest economic numbers warn of a contraction. Failure would test primary support at 8200. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow largely below zero indicates selling pressure. Breach of 8200 would signal a decline to 7200*.
* Target calculation: 8200 – ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 7200
South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is testing medium-term support at 1880 but rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow reflects buying pressure. Recovery above 1960 would test this year’s high at 2060.
China’s Dow Jones Shanghai Index is testing primary support at 250. Breakout would offer a target of 225*. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero reflects a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 250 – ( 275 – 250 ) = 225
Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates strong buying pressure on the Hang Seng Index. Breakout above 22000 would signal an advance to 24000*. A test of the rising trendline is still a possibility, but a correction that respects support at 20000 would still reflect a healthy up-trend.
* Target calculation: 22 + ( 22 – 20 ) = 24
Hong Kong & China: Hang Seng breaks support
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fall below 20000 confirms the earlier primary down-trend signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum reversal below zero. Expect a rally to test the new resistance level at 20000. Respect would indicate a decline to 17500. Recovery above 20000 is unlikely but would warn of a bear trap.
Dow Jones Shanghai Index is more resilient, respecting the rising trendline and with 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero. Breakout above 310 would signal a primary up-trend, but penetration of the rising trendline would test primary support at 275.
* Target calculation: 310 + ( 310 – 280 ) = 340; 280 – ( 310 – 280 ) = 250
Hong Kong & China: Soft Landing
A weekly chart of the Hang Seng Index, with a long tail on last week’s candle, indicates respect of the 20000 support level. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above the zero line indicates buying pressure. Follow-through above 21000 would indicate an advance to 23000*, confirming the primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 21.5 + ( 21.5 – 20 ) = 23
Dow Jones Shanghai Index respected support at the 2010 low of 275, indicating that a bottom is forming. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would signal a primary up-trend. Breakout above resistance at 310 would confirm, offering an initial target of 345*.
* Target calculation: 310 + ( 310 – 275 ) = 345
Hong Kong & Shanghai
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated Wednesday in response to a sharp fall in Shanghai. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of a correction, but as long as the lower trend channel at 20,000 is respected the primary up-trend remains intact.
* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 17500 ) = 22500
Dow Jones Shanghai Index fell sharply to test support at 295. Failure of support would warn of a correction.
Shanghai Composite Index shows a similar fall. Follow-through below 2380 would signal a correction to primary support at 2150.
Shanghai follows through
Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through primary support at 2300. Today the index followed through, falling to 2260. Dow Jones Shanghai Index shows a similar fall below 280. The weekly chart shows an earlier break in August below primary support at 330, leading to a re-test of the 2010 low at 280. Now primary support at 280 has failed, signaling a decline to 240*. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns of a strong primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 280 – ( 320 – 280 ) = 240
China weakens
Dow Jones Shanghai Index respected resistance at 320 and is now testing support at 285. Failure would offer a target of 260*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum deep below zero continues to signal a strong primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 290 – ( 320 – 290 ) = 260
DJ Hong Kong index is testing medium-term support at 360. Failure would mean a re-test of the primary level at 320; respect is less likely but would indicate another test of 410. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure.
Dow Jones Shanghai
Dow Jones Shanghai Index is also hesitant, with no advance over the last 3 trading days. Reversal below 304 would indicate a test of primary support at 284. Breakout above the descending trendline — and resistance at 330 — is unlikely with 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (respect of the zero line from below) warning of selling pressure.
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