US Retail & Light Vehicle Sales slow

Retail sales growth (excluding motor vehicles and parts) slowed to 2.4% over the 12 months to June 2017.

Source: St Louis Fed & US Bureau of the Census

Seasonally adjusted light vehicle sales are also slowing.

Source: St Louis Fed & BEA

Seasonally adjusted private housing starts and new building permits are starting to lose momentum.

Source: St Louis Fed & US Bureau of the Census

The good news is that Manufacturer’s Durable Goods Orders (seasonally adjusted and ex Defense & Aircraft) are recovering.

Source: St Louis Fed & US Bureau of the Census

Cement and concrete production continues to trend upwards.

Source: US Fed

And estimated weekly hours worked (total nonfarm payroll * average weekly hours) is growing steadily.

Source: St Louis Fed & BLS

All of which suggest that business confidence is growing and consumer confidence is likely to follow. Bellwether transport stock Fedex advanced to 220, signaling rising economic activity in the broader economy.

Target: 180 + ( 180 – 120 ) = 240

The S&P 500 broke resistance at 2450, making a new high. Narrow consolidations and shallow corrections all signal investor confidence typical of the latter stages of a bull market. The immediate target is 2500* but further gains are likely.

Target: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

The stock market remains an exceptionally efficient mechanism for the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.

~ Warren Buffett

Fannie Mae Profit Signals a Stabilizing Housing Market – NYTimes.com

[Fannie Mae] reported quarterly net income of $2.7 billion, up from a $6.5 billion loss in the first quarter of 2011……..Across the country, there are signs that the housing market is stabilizing. Home prices have continued to fall, but at a much slower pace. More Americans are buying houses than they were a year ago. Housing starts have climbed more than 10 percent in the last year, as home builders pick up construction of new homes and apartment buildings.

via Fannie Mae Profit Signals a Stabilizing Housing Market – NYTimes.com.

Housing Is to the U.S. What Greece Is to the Euro Zone – Real Time Economics – WSJ

The beleaguered housing sector is looking like the Greece of the U.S. economy. Just as the euro zone won’t prosper until Greece gets its act together, the U.S. recovery won’t gain traction until the housing sector deals with the excesses of its past……..

Housing and related mortgage problems remain a large drag on economic growth. In August, housing starts stood at a annual rate of 571,000–just one-third of its pace during the boom. And the weak September reading on home builders sentiment suggest builders see more declines ahead.

via Housing Is to the U.S. What Greece Is to the Euro Zone – Real Time Economics – WSJ.