Canada’s TSX Composite index also displays tall shadows on last week’s candle, indicating short-term selling pressure. Follow-through below 12700 would suggest another test of primary support at 12400. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would warn of long-term selling pressure, while a trough above the zero line would again suggest a primary up-trend. Breakout above 12900 is unlikely at present, but would confirm.
* Target calculation: 12900 + ( 12900 – 11900 ) = 13900
Canada’s TSX Composite retreated from stubborn resistance at 12900 on the weekly chart. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow turned down, indicating medium-term selling pressure. Another trough above zero, however, would suggest a primary up-trend. Breakout above 12900 would offer a long-term target of 14000*, but breach of support at 12400 remains as likely — and would signal a decline to 11750.
* Target calculation: 12900 + ( 12900 – 11800 ) = 14000
Canada’s TSX Composite is testing resistance at 12900 on the weekly chart. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout (above 12900) would signal a primary advance, with a long-term target of 14000*. Respect of resistance is unlikely, but would test support at 12400. The wild card is the Dow Industrial Average: if it signals a reversal, all bets are off.
* Target calculation: 12900 + ( 12900 – 11800 ) = 14000
The S&P 500 rallied off support at 1640/1650, but the correction is still underway. Respect of resistance at 1675 would confirm. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure and reversal below zero would indicate continuation. Only a breach of primary support at 1560, however, would signal reversal to a down-trend.
* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800
VIX reversal below 15 indicates low market risk, favoring a primary up-trend.
The tech-laden Nasdaq 100 Index holding above its preceding peak at 3050 reflects a healthy up-trend.
The TSX Composite Index respected its rising trendline, suggesting a healthy up-trend. Rising troughs above zero on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow reflect strong buying pressure. Breakout above 12800 would offer a target of 13200*, but expect some resistance at 12900/13000.
* Target calculation: 12800 + ( 12800 – 12400 ) = 13200
The S&P 500 broke support at 1675 and is testing 1650. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Breach of 1650 would test the rising trendline around 1625. Respect (of the trendline) would indicate a healthy up-trend, while failure would test primary support at 1560.
* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800
There is a lower trendline, however, on the monthly chart. Breach of support at 1560 would indicate a test of the (super) trendline.
The VIX below 15 continues to indicate low market risk, favoring a primary up-trend. We need to watch this closely, however, as a spike above 0.20 may warn that something is amiss.
The TSX Composite Index rallied off support at 12400, indicating a test of resistance at 12900/13000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Respect of resistance would suggest another down-swing to 12000/11750, but breakout above 12900/13000 is as likely and would offer a long-term target of 14000*.
* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000
The S&P 500 is again testing resistance at 1700 after a short retracement. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure, but breakout above 1700 would signal an advance to 1800*. Reversal below 1675 would test support at 1650.
* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800
But the primary up-trend shown on the quarterly chart is healthy and, while correction to the rising trendline would be reasonable, trend reversal is unlikely.
The VIX below 15 indicates low market risk.
Canada’s TSX 60 VIX is similarly bullish.
The TSX Composite Index is testing support at 12400. Penetration of the declining trendline would indicate the correction is over and advance to 12900/13000 likely. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would suggest a healthy up-trend. Breach of support remains as likely, however, and would test 12250. In the long-term, breakout above 12900/13000 would offer a long-term target of 14000*.
* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000
Short candles on the S&P 500 indicate some opposition, but breakout above resistance at 1675 indicates an advance to 1800*. Follow-through above 1700 would strengthen the signal. The 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure — and a healthy up-trend. Reversal below 1650 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 1560.
* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800
The VIX below 15 suggests low market risk.
The TSX Composite Index is advancing towards resistance at 12900. Breakout would signal a primary advance, with a long-term target of 14000*. Follow-through above 13000 would strengthen the signal. Breach of the declining trendline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would also suggest improving buying pressure. Respect of 12900, however, and reversal of 13-week TMF below zero, would warn of another test of 11750.
* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000
The S&P 500 broke resistance at 1675 but the short candle indicates (short-term) selling pressure. Follow-through above the May high at 1690 would confirm the primary advance, with a target of 1800*. The 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 1650 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 1560.
* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800
The VIX below 15 indicates market optimism.
The TSX Composite Index has advanced strongly since the bear trap below 12000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Target for the advance is 12900. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 14000*. Reversal below 12000 is unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend; confirmed if 11750 is broken.
* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000
The VIX retreated below 15, signaling that market risk is falling.
The S&P 500 is testing its declining trendline after a brief consolidation above 1600. Penetration would suggest that the correction is over; confirmed if resistance at 1650 is broken. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow is leveling out and a trough above the line would signal a healthy primary up-trend. Target for an advance would be 1800*.
* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800
The TSX Composite index penetrated its declining trendline, suggesting that the correction is over. Follow-through above 12250 would strengthen the signal, while a rise above 12400 would confirm. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would indicate buying pressure. Target for an advance would be 12900/13000. Reversal below 11900 is now unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend.
The S&P 500 rally appears to be faltering. Reversal below 1600 would suggest another decline, with a target of 1500*. Breach of support at 1560 would confirm, while reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the signal.
The June quarter ended with the S&P 500 above its new support level at 1550. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates a healthy up-trend, but the tall shadow (or wick as some call it) on the latest candle suggests otherwise. Reversal below 1500 would warn of a correction to the rising trendline, around 1400.
Breakout of VIX above 25 would signal increased market risk.
A false break below primary support on the TSX Composite index was followed by a rally above 12000. Follow-through above the descending trendline would suggest that the correction is over, but a 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak below zero would warn of selling pressure — and reversal below 11900 would confirm the primary down-trend.
10-Year Treasury yields broke resistance at 2.50% as bond-holders offload their positions. Expect weak retracement to test the new support level at 2.00%, but recovery above 2.50% is likely and would signal a long-term advance to test resistance at 4.00%. Breakout above 4.00% would end the 31-year secular bear-trend. Rising yields reflect market expectations that the economy will recover, enabling the Fed to curtail further quantitative easing.
The S&P 500 broke support at 1600 and is undergoing a correction to test the long-term rising trendline at 1500. Twiggs Money Flow reflects moderate selling and the primary up-trend looks secure.
My concern is: can the US withstand negative sentiment from global markets? The rising VIX is not yet cause for alarm, with the market shrugging off the last foray above 20, but a spike above 25 would warn of elevated risk.
The TSX Composite broke support at 11900/12000 to signal a primary down-trend. Falling 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. Expect a test of the 2012 low at 11250.
The FTSE 100 is testing the rising trendline and support at 6000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a reversal. Failure of support at 6000 would strengthen the signal.
Germany’s DAX is headed for a test of the long-term trendline and primary support at 7400/7500. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. Breach of 7400 would signal reversal to a primary down-trend.
Canada’s TSX Composite is testing primary support at 11900 on the weekly chart. Breakout would signal reversal to a primary down-trend, confirming the warning from a bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Respect of support is unlikely, but would indicate another attempt at 13000.
10-Year Treasury yields respected support at 2.00%, confirming the primary up-trend. Only breakout above 4.00% would end the 31-year secular bear-trend, but a rise to there would result in an almost 50% loss for bondholders. Rising yields reflect market expectations that the economy will recover and the Fed will curtail further quantitative easing.
The S&P 500 respected support at 1600 and is headed for a test of the upper channel around 1700. Reversal below support at 1600 is now unlikely, but would warn of a correction.
The VIX is rising, but remains in the green zone, below 20.
The TSX Composite reversed below support at 12500, indicating weakness. Follow-through below last week’s low would suggest a test of primary support at 11900/12000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure.
The TSX Composite followed through above 12500, indicating another test of resistance at 12800/13000. Expect retracement to test the new medium-term support level at 12500, but respect is likely. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests continuation of the primary up-trend. Breakout above 13000 still appears some way off, but would offer a target of the 2011 high at 14300.
The TSX Composite correction found support at 12000. Expect a rally to test resistance at 12500, but penetration of the rising trendline indicates weakness and breach of support at 12000 would be a strong bear signal. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warned of a correction; a fall below zero would suggest a (primary trend) reversal.
Shallow retracement of the TSX Composite below resistance is a bullish sign. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure. Breakout above 12900 would confirm a primary advance. Immediate target would be 13500*, with a long-term target of the 2011 high at 14300.
* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12500 ) = 13500
Long tails on the TSX Composite weekly chart indicate medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 12800 would signal a fresh advance, while follow-through above 12900 would confirm. Reversal below 12600 is unlikely but would warn of a correction. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate long-term buying pressure and a primary advance. The long-term target would be 15000*.
* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 11000 ) = 15000
The TSX Composite found support at 12600/12650 on the daily chart. Breakout above 12800 would signal a fresh advance, while reversal below 12600 would warn of a correction. Expect support at 12500 and a 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough at zero would indicate medium-term buying pressure. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (not shown) suggest that a base is forming. The long-term target for a breakout above 13000 would be 15000*.
* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 11000 ) = 15000
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